Analysis of the Population Pyramid and its Impact on the Sri Lankan Economy (1948-1977)

Introduction

When considering The field of demography the term population is taking a significant place. In 18^th Century scientist likes Malthus try to acquaint the importance of the community. Based on that, in present studying about community took significant place why it directly impacts to the economy and economic development (Silva, 2004). To determine demand and supply quantities population and demographic factors such as marital status, age, and sex differences are affected. Therefore population is essential as a not only independent but also dependent variable to the economy and economic development (Myint, 1966). The tool of analyzing the community by using graphically is known as a population pyramid. The shape of the population pyramid profoundly affects the economy of the country.

Factors determine the population.

When considering the concept of population, so many factors can identify to relate to it. Among those factors, fertility mortality and international migration are primary factors.

1.      Mortality

Mortality is one of the most crucial factor which decides the shape of the population pyramid and also It is an essential factor to determine the natural growth of the population. To implement public health program and to take administration decision that factor is directly affected.

2.      Fertility

Among mortality, fertility, and migration, pregnancy is the main factor that decides the size of the population. Live births, stillbirths and spontaneous and abortion are included in the reproduction. But the live delivery is essential to the community and its growth.

3.      International migration

Migration is a movement from one geographical area to another area. The term international migration means that moving between the two countries. It also determines the population of a nation.

1.      Age –sex and other structure

The analysis of Age sex- the structure of a population is an essential dimension of the demography of any country. And also populations with different types of age and sex structure have a different implication for future need and economy. As well as the shape of the population pyramid highly depends on the Age of the population.

2.      Urbanization

In here, people migrate to the administrative district. That occurs in within the country.

3.      Marital status

This is the primary factor that decides the fertility. The late marriages are caused by the reduction of fertility. And it is affected to change the shape of the population pyramid because fertility is the base of the population pyramid.

Population pyramid of Sri Lanka between 1948-1977

Usually, the concept of population pyramid says the whole population divides into various age groups and represents it according to the percentage of male and female. (Appendix 01)

The statistics published by Department of Census and Statistics shows the population of Sri Lanka is increasing bit by bit. In the year 1953, the community in Sri Lanka is 8097895. Respectively in 1963 and 1971, it is 10582064 and 12689897. The statistics are showing the trend of increasing population. Free health system and other advanced methods are helped increase the community here. (Appendix 02)

The shape of population pyramid mainly depends on Fertility, Mortality, and international migration.

According to Census statistic in 1946, the population of the country consisted of 3.53 million males and 3.12 million female. When it converts to the sex ratio, there are 113 males per 100 female in 1946. That male-female admixture has changed within the period. 

 In 1953 less than 15 populations were 39.7%, between 15-59 is 54.9% and above 60 are 5.4% out of the total population. Respectively in 1963 & 1971 that percentages are 41.5%, 52.5%, 6% and 39.8%, 53.9%, 6.4%.

 Improvement of lifestyle, an increase of income, growth of sanitation facilities and modernization of society are cause to reduce mortality level and increase fertility level in Sri Lanka between 1948-1977 periods. Within the period, the gap between mortality and fertility took high value. In 1963 Child woman ratio of Sri Lanka is 680 per 1000 woman. With the time that rate is gradually decreased.

Before the Independent the British colonial governor's import South Indian labors to work in the plantation sector. After 1950 the international migration has negatively affected the Sri Lankan population growth. There are two reasons are cause to reduce the Sri Lankan population. Those are the repatriation of South Indian Labors and the rise of foreign employment demand of Sri Lankan labors. During 1950, 1960 and early half of 1970 was migrated educated person and their families to Europe, UK, Australia and the United States settle down here.

During the period 1946-1953 the Anuradhapura district (including Polonnaruwa also) has highest internal migration. In this period, the urban population and aggregate, the population increased at 2.8%. But the period 1953-63 the urban population is proliferating than aggregate. During 1946-1981 period, Colombo district absorbed massive internal migration. (Department of Census and Statistic 1986)

When analyzing the population pyramid between the period in 1950, 1953 and 1960, the shape of the population pyramid takes a standard triangle shape. But when it comes to 1970s, the form of the monument has changed. In 1950 and 1953, the base of the pyramid take larger values, and top of the population pyramid has made small cost. That’s mean the economy has maintained a high fertility rate and optimal mortality rate. But in 1970s base of pyramid reduces the inconsiderable amount. So that the triangle shape of the monument has changed that period.

Economic Impact of the Population Pyramid between the periods 1948-1977

After achieving Independent, the rate of mortality, is gradually decreasing in Sri Lanka. In this period, the fertility rates also highly increase. Therefore in Sri Lanka population is rapid increase. The reported highly enhancement rate is 2.8% in that period. In 1963-71, the fertility rate steadily decreased to 2.3%.

Respectively in 1946, 1953, 1963, the workforce greater than children. And also the percentage of children is higher than the rate of elders (above 60). Therefore the working force can bear the pressure of dependent. In 1950s base of population pyramid (Children within 0-4 years) take higher value than other age groups. Increase of fertility rate cause to that situation. Age sex structure of the country has significant implication on the present and future economy of the country. According to Census data, sex ration is timely decreased. That’s mean female population increase than the male population. Among that female's small percentage contribution to the GDP of the country. Therefore that is a burden to the development of land (Menike, 2017).

Total dependency ratio fluctuates within the period 1946-1971. The child dependency ratio reduces deeply in1963. and the old dependency ratio steadily increase within 1946-1971. In the 1950s, the more aged dependency ratio is smaller than the child dependency ratio. But when it comes to 1970s that situation is reciprocal than previous. That situation affects the future economic condition of the country. Reducing fertility effect to the reducing future working force of the economy. As well as increasing of elderly people additional burden to the rising power. They have to spend more money to look after them and also the government has to spend more money on their welfare facilities.

In 1953 the male life expectancy was 58.8 years and female lesser than 1.3. In 1962 males are 63.3 and females are 63.7. In 1972 the situation was contradictory than in 1953. Female life expectancy is higher 2.9 than male. By considering that period, the population pyramid shows the percentage of females is higher than the percentage of male. Since 1960 the fertility rate is steadily decreased. Early 1960 accounted that the gap between birth and death is very high. But with the time, the difference between birth and death is narrow down. That is a reason the change the shape of the population pyramid. And also natural growth is decline so that. Therefore since the 1970s can identify aging the population.

The population is increasing colonial period because they import South Indian labors to work in estates. But after independence, the South Indian labors went to their motherland, and Sri Lankan skilled people went abroad to earn money. Therefor after independent, the international migration negatively affect the population of Sri Lanka. Because the removal of immigration barriers educated person and their families went to foreign countries. From this era start the brain drain of Sri Lanka. Since the late 1970s, international labor out-migration identified and creates additional employment opportunities. (Karunarathne, 2007)

The period 1946-1953 has identified the highest migration rate in the Anuradhapura district. In 1962 the Department of Nation panning recommended the government should pay more attention to the problem of the agricultural sector and rural development. In 1946-81 period Colombo district absorbed large population. Name some zone as an urban area, and newly identified Municipal council are caused to the increasing population in the western province. From this period it starts to urbanize in that province. Therefore the government has to more attention on infrastructure facility and other facilities.