Sri Lanka's Demographic Transition After 1977: The Pagoda Shape & Economic Dividend

Introduction

Population plays a vital role in the economy. As the population is increasing day by day, the world concerns more about the problems that have been emerged and expected to be developed. Although Sri Lanka is an outlier among the south Asian countries in respect to socio-economic achievements as a developing country, Sri Lanka should concern about the issues relates to the population growth, composition, distribution and its impact on the economy. By analyzing the small population, it is difficult to get a perfect understanding of the future trend of the economy. So it is essential to have an in-depth analysis of the population pyramid, and its impacts on the economy during recent decades. A population pyramid, which consists of different age groups in the population, can be effectively used to analyzing the economic impact during a specific period.

Analysis of population pyramid in Sri Lanka After 1977

Population pyramid is the graphical illustration of the population which consist of different age groups. These age groups can be basically divided into three categories; Child population, working-age population, and elderly population.  Three main demographic factors; fertility, mortality, and migration affect the changes in the population pyramid during recent decades. According to the first population census in 1981 conducted after 1977, in the population pyramid, the majority of the population was closer to the groundless on the top of the pyramid (Figure 01). But as time passed, there is a pagoda-shaped structure after a few decades (Figure 01) in 2012.

According to the 1981 age-sex structure, the population of age group between 00-09 was comparatively high in contrast with the other age groups as a result of higher fertility rate (Table 01), decline in infant mortality rate (Table 02) and expansion of health services. In 2012 there was a decrease in child population but in insignificant amount. In 1981 the working-age population was relatively low compared to 2012. In 2012 there is a higher proportion of the community in the 30-34 age groups. The reason was the whole number of live births registered in 1981 was over 420000, which were more significant than the size of the birth group of adjoining years (W.I.D. Silva, 2015). There is a trend of demographic dividend as the large proportion of the population included in the working age. This has a positive impact on the economy if it is effectively utilized. There was an upward trend in the elderly population in 2012 compared to 1981. Declining fertility and mortality levels, development in emergency medical assistance, improvement in nutrition and education are affected to increase in aging population, and their life expectancy.

Population pyramid and its impact on the economy after 1977

·         Urbanization and internal migration

At the national level, rural-urban migration has both positive and negative impacts. They can improve their income, better employment opportunities, and it improves the overall efficiency of the economy. But another hand, there are some negative impacts such as high population density, unemployment issues for natives, lack of infrastructure and housing facilities, health care and sanitary issues, overcrowding, and environmental issues. Recent decade western province shows a high migration related to other districts since 1977.

·         Employment & Labour force participation

There is an upward trend in the working-age population in Sri Lanka than in the past. In 1996 there were 8.64 million in the labor force and it increased 10.62 in 2006. According to the higher amount of annual net labor force projections to the economy, to supply job opportunities, the economic growth should be increased minimum of 6% to 7% and create job opportunities. Because of the increasing old population, early worker retirement makes an adverse effect on Labour Force participation Rate (Table 03). Female labor participation has been increased up to a considerable amount. In 1971 the female labor force participation in Sri Lanka was 26%, and it was increased to more than 33% in 2000, and in 2011 it was 36% From the total labor force. The change in social impression towards women employment, higher cost of living, higher education is the significant factors influenced to the upward trend in women labor force participation. There is a shift in sex ratio also. In 1981 the sex ratio was 104.0 was in 2012 it was decreased up to 93.8. This trend shows a feminizing in the future. Although the female population is higher than the male population in Sri Lanka, female labor force participation in the economic activities is less as a percentage of total labor force participation. (Table 04)The technical and academic advancement of the female should be increased to increase their competitiveness in labor force participation. They should be given a chance to hold policy development positions at a managerial level not only in the government sector but also in private sector too.

·         Higher demand for International migration

Working-age population more concerns about seeking gainful employment, but lack of proper job opportunities will be a dilemma for Sri Lanka. The government encourages international migration as a solution to the skilled labor deployment. According to the Central Bank 2013 annual report, recent international migration per year is over 300000 and their remittances are about US$ 5619 million, and it becomes a significant income of government. From 1978 to 2012, there is a continuous increase in worker remittances. This has a substantial impact on reducing the unemployment rate and overall poverty in Sri Lanka. Well, the planned export of human capital for employment should be taken place to increase foreign exchange. As the increase in working-age population numerically, that created a problem of absorption of educated manpower to the labor market. So their demand for international migration has been increased in recent years. Proper policies should be taken to shorten the brain drain and permanent movement of valuable human capital such as highly educated research experts, managerial, and specialists those who add value to the economy and labor force.

·         Aging population & dependency ratio

Since the average mortality level decreased, the overall life expectancy of the Sri Lankan population has been increased (Table 05). As the age-sex structure of society has dramatically changed from 1981 to the present, the elderly population was increased from 6.6% to 12.4% (Table 06). The elderly need additional health care facilities, and it affects the capital expenditure behavior of the country. The proportion of the 00-15 year group is declining related to the past. So the dependent population shows an increasing trend in Sri Lanka after 1977. In 1981, there were 18.7 elderly people for every 100 children. In 2001 this amount had increased up to 35.2, and in 2012 it was 49.1 for every 100 children (Table 07).In 1981 the total dependency ratio was 72 per every 100 persons in the working-age population. During the demographic dividend period, it reduced up to 54 and in 2012 it was 60.2. Because of the higher burden, the high dependency ratio hinders the economic development of the country. As the dependency rate increases and less number of elderly employed in the economy (Table 03) The government expenditure on health care and social security mechanism has to be increased. Because of aged labor supply decreases, the family consumption burden is increasing on working-age population, affects the saving rate of the individual as well as family and the whole economy physical capital formation.  It is essential to consider since the life expectancy has increased, and elderly with relatively higher education will have the potential to actively and productively participate in the development in the economy.

The window of opportunity/ first demographic dividend

Compared to 1981, recently, the working-age population has increased quantitatively about the other dependent age groups in the community; the capacity to save is high in the period of demographic dividend. (Table 08) The most worthwhile part of the population dividend would thrive by 2017, and it will disappear by 2031. If appropriate socio-economic policies are introduced immediately Sri Lankan economy could be lifted to a higher position, thereby benefits could be sustained for a more extended period. As the working-age population is more senior in demographic dividend; more workers producing more total output if they are productively employed, higher acquisition of wealth if savings occur and are productively invested and a significant supply of human capital if appropriate investments are made in its formation. The policymakers should get the maximum use of this opportunity by preparing proper policies to attract foreign direct investment to start industries, so sufficient employment opportunities are created for youth and development will take place. Youth entrance to the labor force is high in the demographic dividend period. Economic growth can be increased by adding labor inputs to technical and academic education. The technological education facilities in Sri Lanka should be developed to suit the current market demand.

Conclusion

 From 1977 to present there is an increasing trend in population. But the people of the 0-4 age group is decreasing, and the aged population is increasing. The government should make necessary adjustments to allocate provision of facilities for old persons and create employment for the expanding working-age population. It is in evadable to stop the aging population and before coming to the higher dependency stage government can expand their economic activities at their working age. Female employment has been increased relatively in the past three decades. As the open economy policy was introduced to the Sri Lanka labor incentive industries were started up. Although Sri Lanka is a developing country, there are developments in the demographic factors compare to other developing countries, since there is no adequate economic growth it is unable to get the maximum benefits from favorable population trends about employment. The government should implement effective national policies which increase the maximum utilization of the labor force, proper population structure, educational, and skill enhancement to prevent the issues related to population in the future.

Sri Lanka's Population Pyramid (1948-1977): Economic Impact & Demographic Shifts

Introduction

When considering The field of demography the term population is taking a significant place. In 18^th Century scientist likes Malthus try to acquaint the importance of the community. Based on that, in present studying about community took significant place why it directly impacts to the economy and economic development (Silva, 2004). To determine demand and supply quantities population and demographic factors such as marital status, age, and sex differences are affected. Therefore population is essential as a not only independent but also dependent variable to the economy and economic development (Myint, 1966). The tool of analyzing the community by using graphically is known as a population pyramid. The shape of the population pyramid profoundly affects the economy of the country.

Factors determine the population.

When considering the concept of population, so many factors can identify to relate to it. Among those factors, fertility mortality and international migration are primary factors.

1.      Mortality

Mortality is one of the most crucial factor which decides the shape of the population pyramid and also It is an essential factor to determine the natural growth of the population. To implement public health program and to take administration decision that factor is directly affected.

2.      Fertility

Among mortality, fertility, and migration, pregnancy is the main factor that decides the size of the population. Live births, stillbirths and spontaneous and abortion are included in the reproduction. But the live delivery is essential to the community and its growth.

3.      International migration

Migration is a movement from one geographical area to another area. The term international migration means that moving between the two countries. It also determines the population of a nation.

1.      Age –sex and other structure

The analysis of Age sex- the structure of a population is an essential dimension of the demography of any country. And also populations with different types of age and sex structure have a different implication for future need and economy. As well as the shape of the population pyramid highly depends on the Age of the population.

2.      Urbanization

In here, people migrate to the administrative district. That occurs in within the country.

3.      Marital status

This is the primary factor that decides the fertility. The late marriages are caused by the reduction of fertility. And it is affected to change the shape of the population pyramid because fertility is the base of the population pyramid.

Population pyramid of Sri Lanka between 1948-1977

Usually, the concept of population pyramid says the whole population divides into various age groups and represents it according to the percentage of male and female. (Appendix 01)

The statistics published by Department of Census and Statistics shows the population of Sri Lanka is increasing bit by bit. In the year 1953, the community in Sri Lanka is 8097895. Respectively in 1963 and 1971, it is 10582064 and 12689897. The statistics are showing the trend of increasing population. Free health system and other advanced methods are helped increase the community here. (Appendix 02)

The shape of population pyramid mainly depends on Fertility, Mortality, and international migration.

According to Census statistic in 1946, the population of the country consisted of 3.53 million males and 3.12 million female. When it converts to the sex ratio, there are 113 males per 100 female in 1946. That male-female admixture has changed within the period. 

 In 1953 less than 15 populations were 39.7%, between 15-59 is 54.9% and above 60 are 5.4% out of the total population. Respectively in 1963 & 1971 that percentages are 41.5%, 52.5%, 6% and 39.8%, 53.9%, 6.4%.

 Improvement of lifestyle, an increase of income, growth of sanitation facilities and modernization of society are cause to reduce mortality level and increase fertility level in Sri Lanka between 1948-1977 periods. Within the period, the gap between mortality and fertility took high value. In 1963 Child woman ratio of Sri Lanka is 680 per 1000 woman. With the time that rate is gradually decreased.

Before the Independent the British colonial governor's import South Indian labors to work in the plantation sector. After 1950 the international migration has negatively affected the Sri Lankan population growth. There are two reasons are cause to reduce the Sri Lankan population. Those are the repatriation of South Indian Labors and the rise of foreign employment demand of Sri Lankan labors. During 1950, 1960 and early half of 1970 was migrated educated person and their families to Europe, UK, Australia and the United States settle down here.

During the period 1946-1953 the Anuradhapura district (including Polonnaruwa also) has highest internal migration. In this period, the urban population and aggregate, the population increased at 2.8%. But the period 1953-63 the urban population is proliferating than aggregate. During 1946-1981 period, Colombo district absorbed massive internal migration. (Department of Census and Statistic 1986)

When analyzing the population pyramid between the period in 1950, 1953 and 1960, the shape of the population pyramid takes a standard triangle shape. But when it comes to 1970s, the form of the monument has changed. In 1950 and 1953, the base of the pyramid take larger values, and top of the population pyramid has made small cost. That’s mean the economy has maintained a high fertility rate and optimal mortality rate. But in 1970s base of pyramid reduces the inconsiderable amount. So that the triangle shape of the monument has changed that period.

Economic Impact of the Population Pyramid between the periods 1948-1977

After achieving Independent, the rate of mortality, is gradually decreasing in Sri Lanka. In this period, the fertility rates also highly increase. Therefore in Sri Lanka population is rapid increase. The reported highly enhancement rate is 2.8% in that period. In 1963-71, the fertility rate steadily decreased to 2.3%.

Respectively in 1946, 1953, 1963, the workforce greater than children. And also the percentage of children is higher than the rate of elders (above 60). Therefore the working force can bear the pressure of dependent. In 1950s base of population pyramid (Children within 0-4 years) take higher value than other age groups. Increase of fertility rate cause to that situation. Age sex structure of the country has significant implication on the present and future economy of the country. According to Census data, sex ration is timely decreased. That’s mean female population increase than the male population. Among that female's small percentage contribution to the GDP of the country. Therefore that is a burden to the development of land (Menike, 2017).

Total dependency ratio fluctuates within the period 1946-1971. The child dependency ratio reduces deeply in1963. and the old dependency ratio steadily increase within 1946-1971. In the 1950s, the more aged dependency ratio is smaller than the child dependency ratio. But when it comes to 1970s that situation is reciprocal than previous. That situation affects the future economic condition of the country. Reducing fertility effect to the reducing future working force of the economy. As well as increasing of elderly people additional burden to the rising power. They have to spend more money to look after them and also the government has to spend more money on their welfare facilities.

In 1953 the male life expectancy was 58.8 years and female lesser than 1.3. In 1962 males are 63.3 and females are 63.7. In 1972 the situation was contradictory than in 1953. Female life expectancy is higher 2.9 than male. By considering that period, the population pyramid shows the percentage of females is higher than the percentage of male. Since 1960 the fertility rate is steadily decreased. Early 1960 accounted that the gap between birth and death is very high. But with the time, the difference between birth and death is narrow down. That is a reason the change the shape of the population pyramid. And also natural growth is decline so that. Therefore since the 1970s can identify aging the population.

The population is increasing colonial period because they import South Indian labors to work in estates. But after independence, the South Indian labors went to their motherland, and Sri Lankan skilled people went abroad to earn money. Therefor after independent, the international migration negatively affect the population of Sri Lanka. Because the removal of immigration barriers educated person and their families went to foreign countries. From this era start the brain drain of Sri Lanka. Since the late 1970s, international labor out-migration identified and creates additional employment opportunities. (Karunarathne, 2007)

The period 1946-1953 has identified the highest migration rate in the Anuradhapura district. In 1962 the Department of Nation panning recommended the government should pay more attention to the problem of the agricultural sector and rural development. In 1946-81 period Colombo district absorbed large population. Name some zone as an urban area, and newly identified Municipal council are caused to the increasing population in the western province. From this period it starts to urbanize in that province. Therefore the government has to more attention on infrastructure facility and other facilities.